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GLEANINGS FROM THE SCRIPTURES

By Keith L. Estes

PROPHECIES AND THE LAW OF PROBABILITY

There are over 3300 prophesies in the Scriptures and of these 700 are predictions of the second coming of Jesus Christ and another 100 that allude to it.

Grant Jeffrey in his book Armageddon gives us some interesting calculations concerning the laws of probability, the prediction, and the event.

  • A. The messiah would come from the tribe of Judah, one of the 12 tribes. (1 chance in 12)
  • B. Christ would be born in Bethlehem. (1 chance in 200)
  • C. He would be betrayed for 30 pieces of silver. (1 chance in 50)
  • The Combined Probability: 12 times 200 times 50 Equals One Chance in 120 Thousand.

    Thus, there is only one chance in 120 thousand that any man would fulfill all three prophecies by chance. For those who believe that Jesus simply arranged the events of His life to fulfill these predictions. I would respectfully point out the difficulty most of us would have in arranging our ancestors, the particular city of our birth, and the exact price in silver of our betrayal.

    If you believe the odds are too liberal or too conservative then you can work out the math and develop your own probabilities for these next Eleven Predictions and the Odds against this Occurring.

  • 1. Be born in Bethlehem. Probability: 1in 200.
  • 2. Be preceded by a messenger: Probability: 1in 20.
  • 3. Enter Jerusalem on a colt: Probability: 1 in 50.
  • 4. Be betrayed by a friend: Probability: 1 in 10.
  • 5. Have His hands and feet pierced: Probability: 1 in 100.
  • 6. Be wounded and whipped by His Enemies. Probability: 1 in 25.
  • 7. Be Sold for Thirty Pieces of Silver. Probability: 1 in 100.
  • 8. Be spit upon and beaten. Probability: 1 in 10.
  • 9. His betrayal money thrown in the Temple and given for a potter’s field. Probability: 1 in 200.
  • 10. Be silent before His accusers. Probability: 1 in 100.
  • 11. Be crucified with thieves. Probability: 1 in 100.
  • The Combined Probability Is Equal To One Chance in 10 to the 19th power or One Chance In 10,000,000,000,000,000,000

    To appreciate fully the difficult of making detailed prophecies such as those found in the Bible, let us consider the comparatively simple task of predicting the precise score of a football game between Team A and Team B.

    There is one chance in two that Team A will beat Team B. That’s fairly easy to guess correctly. But what will the final score be? Assuming that most football scores are between 1 and 50, the chances of guessing correctly that Team A will have a particular final score (say 42 points) at the end of the game are one chance in fifty. For predicting Team B to win, the odds are the same, 1 chance in 50.

    To sum up the risk of basing our reputation on predicting tomorrow’s exact football score, we simply multiply the probabilities: 2 x 50 x 50 = 5000 possible score totals. This analysis shows that there is only one chance in 5000 that you will correctly pick the precise final score; that is why you would not bet a month’s pay, let alone your reputation, that you would make such an exact prediction.

    When you consider the difficulty of predicting accurately such a simple thing as the final score of a football game, you can readily understand why no one, except God Himself, [or Intelligent Design if you prefer] would dare to risk His claim to the divine inspiration of His Word, -The Bible, on such a risky undertaking-humanly speaking-as predicting future events in great detail.

    …I am God, and there is none else; I am God, and there is none like me, declaring the end from the beginning... (Isaiah 46:9-10)

    Ref: Armageddon, Appointment With Destiny, Frontier Research Publications P.O. Box 129, Station “U”, Toronto, Ontario M8Z 5M4

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