LOST Fund Revenue Forecast Even Lower Than Already PostedBy Leo CoughlinLARGO - The "funny numbers" game continues in Largo. To what good purpose is unknown. "To deny reality for the sake of temporarily looking good is pointless," one observer pointed out. One wrangle that has persisted is that of the projected revenue from Penny for Pinellas, the popular name for what is officially known as the Local Option Sales Tax (LOST). It appears that the projection of revenue from the LOST fund (popularly known as Penny for Pinellas) is even lower than previously estimated. At the commission's last budget review meeting on August 19, Amy Davis, director of the Office of Management and Budget, provided a raft of financial information for commission members. One of her points of information was revising estimates of revenue over the next 10 years from the LOST fund. She said it would be $67,830,000 - 5.8 percent lower than the forecast of Norton Craig, the city manager, who was whooping about $72 million coming in over the next 10 years. But then, lo and behold, a closer examination of the figures since last Thursday, reveals that the income from LOST/Penny for Pinellas over the next 10 years will be, according to the city's own figures, $62,130,800 - $9,859,200 less than Craig's forecast, a stupendous 13.7 percent off the $72 million figure. The explanation for the difference in the figures as presented by Davis, who is a careful and forthright manager of city budget figures, is that she included LOST revenue for 2010 - a year that is gone, for all practical purposes. FY2011 begins October 1. The background for all this centers on Commissioner Curtis Holmes, whose concern was raised many weeks ago because numerous city projects, for which money was being borrowed, were depending on LOST revenue to pay back the loans. His research back then on future Penny for Pinellas revenues over the next 10 years produced numbers that were far lower than those originally posted by the city administration. On June 30, he warned his colleagues on the commission about the situation. His information predicted revenue between $50 million and $60 million. Already at that point Largo obligations were more than $50 million. A week later, Craig countered with a written communication to the commission that he expected Penny for Pinellas to produce $72 million. It was recalled that when Craig issued his July 8 prediction, Kim Adams, the city's Finance Officer, backed him, although Adams had actually estimated lower figures earlier. "The guessing is," one observer said, "that Amy was persuaded to use numbers that were most favorable to the boss's guesswork on Penny revenue." In response to a query last week, Davis said that her projections were informed by "most economic reports (which say) a 2 percent growth in FY 2011 is considered reasonable." This outlook may be dimmed by figures that came out late last week showing that second quarter growth had slowed to 1.6 percent, down from an original estimate of 2.4 percent. Davis pointed out that the city "adjusts revenue projections periodically throughout the year, therefore they can change. The annual projections over the 10-year LOST extension are also considered reasonable." Money numbers seem to be haunting Largo officials these days. When it was revealed several weeks ago that the city's executive employees were receiving very large compensation packages, a city spokesperson called the figures "incorrect" and "inaccurate." Strange, because the figures were exactly what the city provided to a news gathering site in Tampa, which then made them publicly available. Times are tough and the dire economic situation will probably continue, according to most sources. Everyone understands things are tight, but the mystery is over the optimism on the numbers in Largo or, as Mayor Pat Gerard put it August 19, "generous predictions." The great concern among some in Largo - notably Holmes - is that the city is heavily committed to projects for which money was borrowed and those loans are predicated on the LOST fund for repayment. Somehow or other, the LOST fund - Penny for Pinellas - seems to be Largo's "plenty more where that came from fund." The payback of loans depending on LOST revenue is already mounting to something like $60 million over the next 10 years. If the "funny numbers" don't reach expectations, Largo officials won't be laughing.
|